North America — For months, a La Niña winter has been all but guaranteed by weather forecasters. In NOAA’s July 18th Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks Forecast, it gave a return of a 79% chance for a return of La Niña for the winter of 2024-25. As a result, a La Niña watch is currently in effect. However, not all models are convinced of La Niña’s return.

This week, the CanSIPS model decreased the chances of a La Niña winter for 2024- 25. If this trend is to be believed, it would result in a mild La Niña or a La Nada winter.

Utah Daily Snow shared this information from the World Climate Service Twitter account. Utah Daily Snow is one of the weather sources I trust, so I think this is worth sharing.

A winter with El Niño or La Niña is referred to as ENSO-Neutral or La Nada. This type of weather forecast is more challenging to predict, so the typical map that shows La Niña or El Niño winters is thrown out the window. In these situations, regional weather patterns typically occur. Bill Patzert, a retired NASA climatologist, said the following to the Austin American-Statesmen about the differences brought forth by a La Nada winter:

“Without an El Niño or La Niña signal present, other, less predictable, climatic factors will govern fall, winter and spring weather conditions.”

Typically a La Niña winter brings ample snowfall to the Pacific Northwest, and cold weather to much of Western Canada. The Southwest sees drier weather, i.e. less snow. New England is more uncertain, although it will probably rain around Christmas like it usually does.

Ultimately, the CanSIPS is just one of many weather forecasting models, and it’ll take time to see how this will play out. It’s still August, meaning there’s a lot of time between now and official weather forecasts tend to come out. NOAA doesn’t typically release its official winter forecast until the fall, so there’s still a lot of time left on the clock.

Image/Video Credits: World Climate Service, NOAA

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